Lambert Dopping-Hepenstal looked at “the future of aeronautics” on
April 12th at YMCA Hawker, This was also broadcast on Zoom and is
available in the Hawker video Library at
http://easyurl.cc/HAVideoLibrary. Lambert spent 40 years from 1972 with
HSA/BAe including 16 years at Kingston working on avionic systems for
Hawks, AST 396, Sea Harriers and Harrier II. In 1989 he was transferred
to Warton to work on their types, the Joint Strike Fighter and unmanned
aircraft (UAVs). He then spent 5 years at BAe head office during the
formation of BAE Systems after the take-over of Marconi.
Taking a 1966 book by Prof John Allen, “The Future
of Aeronautics”,
as his inspiration Lambert decided to look forward from today. Some of
John Allen’s predictions were good: passenger growth, drones,
composites, 3D printing, digital computing, “glass” cockpits, computer
aided design (CAD), fly by wire (FBW). And some were poor: video
conferencing replacing air travel, supersonic airliners (except for
one), nuclear propulsion, to Mars by 1980, space tourism (just
starting), world computer for air traffic control, mind control by
2020. And some were missing: GPS, miniaturisation of computing and
electronics, E scan radars, computer modelling and simulation.
Aviation
– What Next?
Challenges for our future are climate change needing work on emissions,
fuel availability, runway alignment, en route winds; market
uncertainty; cost of fuel, crew and development; and development time.
Opportunities include advanced air mobility (small
VTOL aircraft);, autonomous systems (no pilots increasing flexibility
and reducing cost): space (Moon, satellites – for GPS, communications,
solar panels “space solar” transmitting power to earth via HF). Lambert
went on to identify funding sources available for such advances and how
they might be achieved.
Propulsion efficiency (fuel per passenger) drag and
weight are crucial.
Synthetic fuels, “green” hydrogen, fuel cells,
batteries and hybrid electric power are candidate technologies.
However, energy density is serious consideration. Jet fuel is a very
efficient energy source; lithium ion (LiI) batteries are 50 x less
dense than jet fuel – a 90 ton Boeing 737 would need 600 tons of LiI
batteries. Liquid hydrogen needs 4 x space of jet fuel and half the
737’s volume would be needed to carry it.
Drag reduction requires high aspect ratio wings
which are structurally difficult and may need strutting and active
controls. Large spans won’t fit existing airports.
Market growth will require 40,000 long range
aircraft in 2042, double today’s world fleet.
Advanced air mobility vehicles (AAMVs) may be used
inter-city and inter-airport replacing noisy, expensive helicopters.
Some 250 companies are working on AAMVs with several demonstrators
flying and substantial orders placed by air lines. Challenges include
pilot availability or autonomous operation, air traffic control,
infrastructure, public acceptance, and certification (large numbers of
designs).
For economic space operations reusable vehicles
performing horizontal runway take-offs with air-breathing engines would
reduce weight and cost. The UK Reaction Engines Sabre is planned to go
from the ground to orbit in one hop using unique heat exchanger/ram jet
technology.
The foregoing part of the detailed talk was
concerned mainly with future civil air transport needs. Lambert also
covered military aviation.
